Thailand Trade Surplus Hits Record High in February

Trade surplus surges to $4.98 billion from $238 million in January

BANGKOK—Thailand’s trade surplus surged to hit a record high in February, as exports grew for the first time in 14 months while imports slumped more than expected, the Commerce Ministry said Friday.

According to raw customs data, the country’s trade surplus stood at $4.98 billion in February, compared with $238 million in January.

The 10.27% rise in exports from a year earlier to $18.99 billion offers some hope that external demand for Thai products may be starting to firm after the long stretch of declines. Exports had dipped 8.9% in January from a year earlier.

For the first two months of this year, Thailand’s exports increased 0.67% from a year ago to $34.7 billion.

Imports continued to fall in February, sliding 16.82% to $14 billion, compared with a 12.4% contraction in the preceding month. For the January-February period, imports contracted 14.5% year-over-year to $29.48 billion.

The February trade data, for the most part, turned out better than economists’ forecasts. OCBC Bank had projected the country’s exports and imports to have fallen 9.3% and 9.8%, respectively, and estimated a trade surplus of $426.7 million, while HSBC had expected 4.6% and 7.7% year-over-year falls in exports and imports and an $890 million trade surplus.

Thailand’s overseas shipments of unwrought gold surged to a record high of $1.89 billion—an amount that represents 10% of February’s total export value.

Exports of key industrial products such as automotive and hard-disk drives also rose by 98.5% and 39.0%, respectively, year-over-year in February.

Meanwhile, agricultural exports registered a slight increase of 0.4% in February, when compared with the same month of last year, on the back of an increase in shipment volumes of rice, rubber, processed fruit, vegetables and chicken.

The rebound in Thailand’s exports has been a surprise to economists, who are still skeptical about its outlook.

Sarun Sunansathaporn, an economist from Bank of Ayudhya, said Thai exports weren't expected to extend their strong rebound, given cyclical and structural headwinds are likely to persist over the medium term. “Raw material imports, a prime leading indicator for exports, suffered an eight-month streak of declines. Thus, we maintain our negative export growth of -1% this year,” he said.

Nevertheless, the Commerce Ministry stuck to its 2016 export growth projection of 5.0%—highly optimistic when compared with the Bank of Thailand’s latest projection, which was lowered to a 2.0% contraction from a flat growth forecast made at the end of December.

Write to Nopparat Chaichalearmmongkol at